I just don’t get climate alarmism. It isn’t enough that the climate is changing, whether it is warming or cooling, it actually needs to be out of the ordinary or directly attributed to human activities to be alarming. And you have to separate out the natural patterns of change to do that.

Weather on the other hand, is something that humans have always been concerned with. It is too cold, it is too warm, it is too wet, it is too dry; and on and on. However, the climate is just the accumulation of weather over a longer period of time. All those individual weather events add up to give a place a kind of climate that will be different from somewhere else.

So to get climate alarmism, the change has to be far different than expected and heading in a direction that is going to be mostly destructive or harmful to humans and other species. Determining if it is out of the ordinary should be easy. We just have to compare it to historical patterns. We actually have accumulated a lot of historical data that can be used as reference.

Context is so important here, so let’s start with that. We are in an interglacial where a warming trend is the norm. When the interglacial ends, we will enter a period where a cooling trend is the norm. Is this interglacial any different than past interglacials? Actually it turns out it is. We are at the midpoint of the interglacial and past interglacials were 4C warmer and sea levels were 10M higher than present.

The next question to answer, is the change we are experiencing tolerable? The temperature has warmed at the rate of .5C in 100 years. Is this tolerable? Ok, so that change of .5C in 100 years works out to a rate of .005C per year. However, the average temperature change from one year to the next can be as much as 5C which is 10x greater than .5C and at a 1000x greater rate of change than that .005C per year. And we seem to be able to accommodate that. It is even worse if you look at the temperature change within a single year, where it can be 50C or even 80C where I live. This 50C is  100x greater than .5C. And a 50C change compared to the .005C is at a 10,000x greater rate of change and we also seem to be able to tolerate that too. So there is no question that we should be able to tolerate a .5C change over the course of 100 years. It is 10,000 times smaller than what we experience each year.

The next question to answer is will it always be like this or will it get worse? For sure, a .5C rise in temperature of 100 years is a 5C in a thousand and 50C in 10,000 years. But is that even realistic? What of the future?

Extinction Event

This is a climate emergency, we must all act as one, right now. Something pretty awful is happening. Something catastrophic is happening. Anxious about the environment. This is a problem that no one is doing anything about. We are poisoning our planet. That sense of moral duty to do something about it. We are in denial. What is wrong with taking extreme action. People are starting to realize that climate change and ecological breakdown are getting very close.

Ok, so these statements are full of feeling but it is hard to get at the source of their concern. And there seems include a mix of other concerns such as population growth and environmental destruction, and very little about climate. And there seems to be a call to action, without a clear understanding of what that action should be, or even why we need a call to action.

So lets next take a look at some of the key aspects of climate.

Global Temperature

Impact of 1.5C of warming is not safe and we absolutely must keep to this 1.5C limit.  Yet, they predict warming of 3C by end of this century and this is alarming.

What we can agree on

There have been periods of warming but there have also been periods of cooling. During the last century, the warming is greater overall than the cooling so we have experienced a net warming at the rate of .6C per century in recent times. We have some interesting proxy data such as Ice Cores that can give us a pretty good indication of past temperature changes, and this kind of change is something that occurs regularly.

What we can not agree on

No apparent acceleration of warming is evident, that would indicate anything more than a similar warming rate of the next 100 years compared to the last 100 years. This would suggest only a further warming of .5C by the end of this century.

Central England 1660-2017

Take a close look at the land temperature data, from thermometer readings for Central England from 1660-2017:

  • Nothing remarkable, albeit a small slow warming trend is evident;
  • 2017 is only slightly warmer than 1730, maybe half a degree;
  • a half a degree can not be considered statistically significant because it is within the measurement error;
  • Annual variations from one year to next are typically 5C which is huge in comparison to the 350yr trend.

We also have to consider that we are in the midst of an interglacial where warming is the norm. In other words, it is supposed to be warming. What we really should be asking is why is this interglacial so cold? It was 4C warmer last time. Previous interglacials were even warmer.

Arctic Ice

The Arctic will be ice free by 2014, (or 2020, or 2024). Reaching the tipping point with irreversible change.

What we can agree on

The ice area has been in decline from 1979-2018. The most notable change is the minimum ice area has declined from 4.6 in 1979 to 3.3 in 2018. The maximum area has hardly changed at all with a peak of 13.2 in 1979 and a decline of 12.6 in 2018, however it was also 12.6 in 1980 and 1984.

What we can not agree on

Although I didn’t plot it on the min-max graph above, the annual mean has gone from 9.4 in 1979 to 8.7 in 2018, a difference of 0.7. However, look at the following historical record on previous ice mean levels from 1920-1975. You can clearly see lows of 5.5 and highs of 7.2 with a difference of 1.7. Is there any chance that this kind of variation might be normal, it is certainly within the variation of historical records?

Here is another look at current trends since 2006. What are they seeing that makes them conclude the arctic will be ice free in 2012? Things look pretty normal to me. Nothing to be alarmed at.

Blue ocean event.

The arctic will be ice free in a few years and once that happens, the change in albedo will accelerate the ice loss be the tipping point that keeps it from freezing again.

What we can agree on

Minimum ice area has declined from 4.4 in 1979 to 3.3 in 2018 which is a 25% loss. But there does not appear to be any acceleration in loss so at that rate it will take at least another 120 years for it to reach zero, if nothing changes. I wish I could find a time series on the period before 1979 as I do not know how the minimum ice area decline compares to the past. If the mean annual ice area is any indication, it was probably lower in the past.

What we can not agree on

This one is crazy, and I can’t quite get the logic behind it, and that could just be because it is never actually explained. Two factors seem to be in play here: the heat latency of ice compared to water and the difference in albedo between ice and water. Ok, so we know that the ice thaw occurs from the south moving north and occurs because at the summer solstice, the axial tilt of the earth is causing the sun to shine down on the north, 24 hours a day. Even with that, it still takes until September, almost the equinox, to melt all that ice. But by then, the days are getting shorter, very fast. The sun is low on the horizon and very soon will not even appear for several months. So, even if all the arctic ice should manage to disappear one warm day in September some time in the future, it is still going to refreeze quickly during those cold sunless days of winter until the spring equinox approaches and the sun reappears on the horizon.

We also know that the arctic ice cap disappeared during the last interglacial so once again we should be asking, why is this interglacial so cold?

(Will examine the following topics in future upates)

  • Sea level
  • Extreme weather events
  • Depleting resources
  • Species loss
  • Environmental destruction

[display-posts tag=”alarmism” posts_per_page=”100″ image_size=”medium” include_content=”true” title=”Alarmism sources of information” category_display=”true”]


28,132 thoughts on “Alarmism

  1. Hi there are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you require any html coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  2. ;
    ■ Inkscape 0.43.2 or higher;
    ■ Videos

    SIOX first tries to find a standard ROI (recognition of interest) in the image. This is a rectangular area with a defined size. See below how to use this ROI to manipulate the image. Then, the ROI is expanded to get a segmentation in the entire image. Now, it’s much faster to generate a mask from this

    6add127376 latioff

  3. Add to that the use of the LFO in combination with other plugins such as reverb, chorus or the versatile volume envelope LFO with dual phase and you have a tool with the capability to modulate all your favorite synth and effect plugins. You can also take all that has just been said into account and make the modulation dynamics two ways. For example, via an enveloping LFO with dual phase and a chorus LFO and use the modulation to create new dimensions in your sound that the plugin alone can provide.
    Of course any MidiShaper feature can be used on their own, but if you are interested in keeping

    6add127376 paehay

  4. +
    ■.NET Framework 2.0
    ■ HTTP Client
    ■ Asp.NET 2.0
    ■ SQL Server Express
    Steps to setup your web-hosting. Step 1: Configure your connection string Step 2: install AspNetOsCommerce & steps to install and configure Step 3: copy files from the master machine to your server Step 4: Install express Step 5: Install OsCommerce version 3 Step 6 05e1106874 jamrya

  5. One the software is removed – or removed and the user uninstalled – WAVLauncher will reappear next time you boot up WAVLauncher. You will also always see WAVLauncher in your list of running programs.
    The program runs perfectly by visiting and clicking on the ad for WAVLauncher.
    The final build log is at [link] (Final Log).

    WAV Launcher Pro is a professional software package for launching programs, playing 8cee70152a janwill

  6.  With Default Format ZAShare is very easy and does not require technical knowledge. Setting password for ZAShare is easy and does not require any technical knowledge.
    All ZAShare users can access to their shared files on local network, but only the administrator can view the sharing log and request access from other system to the shared files.
    ZAShare can create a secure intranet and can connect to Microsoft CRM and Exchange serivce.

    ec5d62056f tristamb

  7. With ASP.NET Code Library, you can keep your code safe behind your firewall and under your full control, edit and share your code without writing a single line of code with any of the 30 languages supported by this product!
    Using all of these powerful features, you can:
    -Edit and share your code snippets in a variety of languages
    -View and modify source code in a variety of languages
    -Organize easily your source code files across folders
    -Edit and save your favorite
    ec5d62056f phyrqui

  8. It’s a stylish addition to any computer that provides a way to display your product key in the native OS. The only downside is that it doesn’t support Windows 10 Home editions or Windows Server editions.
    There are thousands of different software developers designing alternative skins for Windows. Here are 15 of them, most of which are highly regarded by users.
    For some, a new user interface means that everything seems different. For others, it presents everything as if it’s brand new. Which is
    ec5d62056f welcher

  9. It is also compatible with any Android device running version 4.0 or above, so no matter if you are using a Windows phone or a smartphone, you can still receive all the benefits included in 360 Browser.

    Best Resources about Web Design

    Make your website more user-friendly, Search Engine Optimized and Visitor-friendly with these 15 Web Design Resources. Become the expert of web design, these resources are perfect even for amateur users. Search for more or download them today, these
    ec5d62056f queefin

  10. compile4d Virtual Worlds Platform –

    Compile4d is a distributed virtual worlds platform. For now Compile4d only supports the Java based Java Virtual Machine (JVMs), however future versions are planned. Compile4d is based on Compile4d Web, a web based virtual worlds platform.

    Jon O’Brien

    Born in the summer of 1960 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US, Jon O’Brien joined Ubisoft in
    ec5d62056f gildeb

  11. >= 1.4.2
    ■ JDK >= 1.4.2
    ■ J2SE >= 1.4.2
    ■ Apache Ant >= 1.5
    ■ Windows
    Main Features:
    DSTC allows for:
    ■ Creation of archives containing multiple files and folders.
    ■ Explicit listing of files/folders to extract from ZIP archive.
    ■ Creation of archives with files/folders automatically
    ■ Using new ZIP entries, which allows for exclusive creation of
    archive entries.
    ec5d62056f chepors

  12. Pros:

    Tried and tested on real-world samples.
    Simple-to-use, straight-forward interface.


    No restart function.
    DLL injection options are limited.
    Should use an external application to inject DLLs, as a user experience limitation.


    Easy to use.
    Light on system resources usage.
    Overall working well.


    A restart option for already injected processes would improve
    ec5d62056f deusce

  13. Moreover, the DVD-Audio Decoder is capable to detect DTS-HD EX Master Audio (DTS-HD MA) and Dolby TrueHD watermark bytes including AES

    DWFileDipper Pro is an easy to use but efficient file conversion tool. It can convert almost any type of audio files from one format to another including MP3, WMA, AAC, etc. It also allows you to convert playlist files (files with playlists) from one format to another.
    ec5d62056f vaayosh

  14. 10.0


    2 days ago


    Beautiful and intuitive presentation
    KeepIn Calendar packs a stylish and user-friendly interface that displays relevant Holiday information and beautiful images along with highly intuitive functionalities.
    Handcraft website of Holidays
    The app uses a witty and intuitive presentation style that lets you view a list of Holidays organized in several calendar categories.
    You can also browse for Holidays by clicking on the day of the current
    ec5d62056f makoliv

  15. With this utility, you will have no troubles trying to boost your privacy.

    PROS: It is simple, effective, and cross-platform tool, so you can work with it on both Windows and Mac, and it is fully customizable.
    CONS: You can’t password-protect this application.


    If you are in need for an app that puts a safe lock on your Mac and gives you control over your browser, it is high
    ec5d62056f wauntal

  16. To get all the details on each feature, you can view the About PDF Converter and Inside the PDF Converter pages.
    Yes, there are a number of similar tools out there, however, this one is worth a look.

    Ability to convert and edit PDF files

    Can easily convert, compress, rotate, merge PDFs, and extract text from images.

    Installing and using this app is as easy as can be, requiring a quick and simple installation.
    ec5d62056f amerbla

  17. Like it? Share with your friends!

    Other Windows Software of Developer «SCMDG»:

    Everything You Wanted to Do About Objects Software TricksFunny StuffFun ObjectsUsing T-Shirt creation software is fun. Think of T-Shirts as little clothes for people. Someone can dress up in a tee shirt and look just as good as someone wearing a nice suit. On

    AppUpdate SoftwareYour online personal tracking softwareAppUpdate is a software used to
    ec5d62056f angefide

  18. Download Px Editor

    Tap screen to draw lines, add a shadow, change colors and much more in this simple mode of SubEthaEdit, easily creating dazzling edits.

    Working brilliantly on both iPhones and iPads, the keyboard optimized port of SubEthaEdit is all but perfect. Change just about anything about SubEthaEdit!

    Between iOS and the free trial version on the web, there are many features to tap and touch to enjoy, but don’t forget
    ec5d62056f raijac

  19. First off I would like to say superb blog! I had a
    quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not
    mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your mind prior to writing.
    I’ve had trouble clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts
    out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like
    the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually wasted simply just trying to figure out
    how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Thank you!

  20. 24–version 2007

    This is the standard output of MySQL versions 5.0 and above, as well as most versions of MariaDB. It can also be produced with the SHOW [GLOBAL] TABLES command.

    [\d] will work, but the desired string may appear in a different column.

    Investor in drug company dies

    By By MCT News Service

    November 26, 2013

    50e0806aeb ramibir

  21. Additionally, the disk contains a registry entry which overrides the older account passwords. This ensures that account passwords remains unchanged. Mst Password does not require administration privileges.
    The problem of forgotten or lost passwords is particularly important for content servers and even for highly critical machines – e.g. Windows servers. When server administrators are busy with their own projects, their time is limited and consequently, Internet activities are often delegated to untrusted people. Also, server owners can forget to protect their servers.
    50e0806aeb nelindi

  22. Version 9.1:
    * Ability to add new root folders (vista or windows 7 or 8) and make shortcut.
    * Removed the free space feature, the Compress feature will appear if there’s no
    space on the memory card.
    [Corrections and improvements]
    The Compress feature is not working for 6.0 series and below. Now it is working for
    any version
    Weird issues fixed on some memory
    50e0806aeb yevgulr

  23. .
    ■ DeskoverX is not a “hidden” software, it does not hide your desktop. It’ll just show it looking “cooler”, and replace the default wallpaper. For that reason, it’s your responsibility to turn this software on, set an actual desktop wallpaper, turn off the programm after your job, and uninstall it.
    ■ You are not allowed to add the original wallpaper. This would be an infringement of our copyright and against the Warez file
    50e0806aeb chaycar

  24. Tracking Spread of Mental Illness

    Mental illness is not understood. Its causes remain questionable. The industry and medical professionals are unable to handle what can go really wrong with the brain, and by blame we do not mean they don’t try.

    Throughout the years, many have explained their claims that certain diseases are the result of mental imbalance. However, none with a convincing explanation. They only sound to be reasonable because of the peculiar way we perceive illnesses.
    50e0806aeb stewarm

  25. READ MORE: CNET Editors’ Rating

    In conclusion, Google is positioning T-Mobile and its share of spectrum to make a strong play for 3G/4G coverage. But the question remains: will Verizon and AT&T decide to retaliate, an…

    Microsoft, which has had a long and storied relationship with Nokia, revealed new Lumia-branded Lumia devices for the first time at its Build developer conference on Wednesday.
    The new devices – called the Lumia 930
    50e0806aeb kannosb

  26. The resulting image pages are valid HTML which can contain any info needed for the image you are showing or linking to. The main page for the gallery can also be made pretty with headlines, logos, text and/or a color scheme.

    Saturday, August 29, 2014

    I just completed my bulletin board project. I’ve never shown it before, but I wanted to make sure it fit here, before I actually began construction. Of course it is pretty spacious over at Everyone’s Art
    50e0806aeb rebedawn