Covid-19


Been following this since January and have consumed quite a few science journals and listened to various experts and here is what I believe to be true at this time: (links at the bottom)

Comparisons with the seasonal flu are useful because it transmits and affects people in similar ways but there are several factors that make Covid-19 far worse than the seasonal flu. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is much higher, as much as 10-20x higher. Transmission rate (R0) is also much higher. Plus, a large percentage of people are asymptomatic, and while a person is asymptomatic, their levels of the virus are 1000 times higher than seen with seasonal flu, so they are super infectious even at this stage. On top of that, 20% of cases are infectious but never develop symptoms at all so it is really not obvious to people that they have come into contact with someone with the virus.

Like the seasonal flu, it will eventually affect most of the population. The WHO are saying 40-70%. So most of us will come into contact at some point. It seems inevitable.

CFR is really based on age and underlying levels of health or the presence of other conditions. Very low for children and very high in the elderly, smokers, or those with other threatening conditions. This is referred to as a death rate in the table below but they are actually case fatalities and is not the true death rate from the virus. This is an important distinction. Cases are people that have been presented to the authorities, probably tested positive and are counted as a case that will be tracked. There are only two outcomes to a case, recovery and back to their normal life or death. But many more people may not be coming forward as 80% of cases have mild or no symptoms. However all the authorities that I follow stress that the numbers are low and that there are many more people with the virus that are not being counted. Even the WHO has said 10x as many people. Again, the numbers below are the case fatality rate, not the overall death rate. You should divide these numbers by 10 at least to get the death rate from the virus. In comparison, 900,000 people were hospitalized last year in the USA for influenza and 80,000 died. And it was a bad year, as the numbers are usually half of that.

Extreme measures like we saw in China have flattened the curve and brought the R0 way down. Yet these levels of isolation or lockdown are not sustainable for long so it will just slow the transmission for a while. Of course, it is important to slow it down, flatten the curve as they say, because otherwise, our health care facilities will be overwhelmed and unable to handle those that need medical intervention the most. Some 20% of those infected need intensive care facilities and without proper equipment such as oxygen and respirators, 25% of those will die. (at a 5% average CFR). Intervention can and will allow more people to survive. This is what our governments should be focused on. The proper care, equipment and facilities for those patients in the ICU.

Taking precautions and being prepared are useful but not likely going to prevent you from coming into contact with the virus. The principle vector is breathing. Hand washing alone has been shown to have zero affect when clinically studied. (link below) But surgical masks were never designed to control breathing-in so only a full kit such as n95 particulate masks, face shields and Tyvec outer clothing are required. Given the limited supply, it seems more prudent to leave those devices to the front line workers as their safety is paramount and they have the training.

Better precautions are being able to self isolate as much as possible, and having enough food supplies to reduce or eliminate your trips to the supermarket.

The best precaution is to do whatever you can to improve your immunity system and stay healthy. Reduce stress, get more sleep, choose better nutrition. Because at this point, 80% of people will experience mild or no symptoms which suggests a healthy life style is still your best option and there is no reason to panic.

I also just learned that NSAIDs are causing serious complications for those with the virus so it would appear that none of them, except for possibly Tylenol, should be taken to reduce symptoms. And there is good evidence that even Tylenol should not be taken to reduce the fever. Fever is good.

Dashboard

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

John Hopkins Tracker

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Latest News Feed

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/#redfield-021320

Influenza Virus depends on cellular glucose and affects Vitamin D receptors. Keytogenic diet is going to help. Fasting also helps by putting the body into Autophagy which recycles damaged proteins and cleans up microbes, viruses, parasites. Prolonged fasting increases stem cell growth to strengthen and grow your immune system. Vitamin D has a major impact on your immune system. So increase your Vit D, and zinc also. He also touches on something that has been nagging at me. Relatively small death rate of nCov compared to normal death rate which is much higher yet nCov is overwhelming China. What gives?
He has a great series of posts now on ncov and they are amazing source of info and he explains things well.

He also has about a dozen posts now explaining ncov which are very good. He is a medical doctor so he has practical medical advice for everyone.

Useful Sources

World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports

National Health China – Daily Briefing

Dr. John Campbell

MedCram – Dr. Roger Seheult.

23rd Commissioner of FDA
Public health Scientist
Exec Director WHO

Science & Medicine Articles

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

JAMA – Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China 25% required ICU, 20% had ARDS, 4.3% died. Those requiring ICU had underlying condition.

Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study.
Clinical Features Predicting Mortality Risk in Patients With Viral Pneumonia: The MuLBSTA Score
Chinese Researchers Say That Public Toilets Can Also Be A Source Of Coronavirus Transmissions
The potential spread of infection caused by aerosol contamination of surfaces after flushing a domestic toilet
njem – Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
Analysis of early transmission of 2019-nCoV and implications for outbreaks in new locations
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
stat – Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms
Lancet – Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
njem – First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States
ScienceDaily – Whole genome of the Wuhan coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, sequenced
medrxiv – Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China
Bloomberg – Coronavirus Spreading in Munich Shows Difficulty Halting New Bug
Oxford Clinical Chemistry – Molecular diagnosis of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing an outbreak of pneumonia
James Lyons-Weiler, PhD – On the Origins of the 2019-nCoV Virus, Wuhan, China
boxminin – Corona Virus Outbreak – List of Important Information
AAAS Science – Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

Seasonal Flu Monitoring CDC

1918 Pandemic H1N1 – CDC

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Whole genome of the Wuhan coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, sequenced

Sun Feb 2 , 2020
The Institut Pasteur has sequenced the whole genome of the coronavirus known as ‘2019-nCoV’, becoming the first institution in Europe to sequence the virus since the start of the outbreak. Source: Whole genome of the Wuhan coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, sequenced

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